A report by Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics experts indicated a mixed bag of slight price increases and decreases for beef, pork and poultry throughout grilling season.
Consumer costs for primary beef and pork offerings like ground beef, chuck roasts, sirloin steaks and pork chops are expected to increase around 1% between May and October, while chicken cuts like boneless breasts are expected to decrease by more than 2% during the same time.
The Summer 2024 Meat Prices report was authored by Simon Somogyi, Ph.D., director of the Weston Agrifood Sales Program and Dr. Kerry Litzenberg Sales and Economics Endowed Chair in the department. Report co-authors include David Anderson, Ph.D., professor and Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service specialist – livestock and food product marketing; Yong Liu, Ph.D., assistant professor; and Weifang Liang, a doctoral student – all in the department.
Somogyi said prices continue to remain near historic highs, but market trends are showing lower retail costs for consumers compared to last year. Consumers should expect a price spike as the Memorial Day holiday weekend kicks off grilling season that typically peaks with Fourth of July celebrations.
“Prices may spike and fluctuate that first month of grilling season due to higher demand from people eating at restaurants and cooking out at home,” he said. “But prices should stabilize after that.”
Price expectations are averaged across the U.S., and Somogyi said retail prices will be heavily influenced by location and price discounting like grocery specials.
Meat markets stabilize before grilling season The price forecasts reflect market dynamics across beef, pork and poultry products typically purchased for summer cookouts, Somogyi said.
He attributed the anticipated price increases for ground beef and chuck roast to the seasonal surge in demand during summer grilling season. Beef consumption increases historically during this period, pushing prices upward.
Ground beef continues to benefit from consistent consumer demand, particularly in the fastfood sector, Somogyi said. Lean beef wholesale prices have surged higher on declining supplies while ample supplies of fed beef remain available.
Total meat supplies are expected to decline compared to last year with production increases in chicken and pork not fully offsetting reduced beef production, Somogyi said.
Beef production has declined 2% compared to this time last year, he said. That reduction comes after a 5% dip in beef production in 2023 compared to the same time in 2022.
Meanwhile, the U.S. cow herd is the smallest since 1961. Two years of severe drought in Texas, which accounts for more than 14% of beef cattle nationally, factored into the decline. This means fewer cows are going to market, which in turn puts pressure on supplies and ultimately causes upward price trends at grocery stores.
Ground beef prices were expected to increase an average of 6 cents per pound to $5.19 by October compared to $5.16 in May. Prices have come down about 20 cents per pound since they peaked in November, but still remain higher than the pre-pandemic price of $4.50 per pound in April 2019.
- Log in or Subscribe to post comments.